The Impact of Natural Disasters on Public Finances in Mozambique (2016–2019)

The research analyzed the impact of natural disasters in Mozambique from 2016 to 2019, focusing on events such as El Niño-induced droughts, Cyclone Dineo, tropical cyclones Idai and Kenneth, floods, and erosion in various regions. Using a mixed methodological approach that combined qualitative and quantitative methods, including statistical analysis with SPSS, interviews, and document research, the study identified significant impacts on key economic sectors such as agriculture, infrastructure, and tourism, with damages proportional to the severity of the disasters. Despite these disruptions, the research found no significant fiscal losses, as public revenues continued to grow during the period, driven by resilient sectors like commerce, oil, mining, state-owned enterprises, real estate, and public asset management. While emergency response funding was limited and insufficient to impose major fiscal burdens, 2019 marked an exception, with public debt rising to 20% due to the extensive damage caused by cyclones Idai and Kenneth. The findings, framed by contingency theory and the neoliberal economic perspective, highlight Mozambique’s capacity to maintain fiscal stability and economic growth despite recurring natural disasters, emphasizing the resilience of its primary tax-contributing sectors while underscoring the need for stronger disaster preparedness and improved infrastructure to mitigate future risks.